Extreme example: Iridium phone – idea scrapped after billions of dollars spent

The one article came from the Financial Times and was called “Killing projects is the hardest innovation” and the other came out of the introduction to Bain’s Decision Insight series called “Decisions during change“. It is particularly relevant to us here at Genesis as we hold conversations around our “Brave New World” campaign. Here we are talking to our clients about how their world has probably fundamentally changed since the recent economic and social turmoil – and they can no longer simply afford to continue along the old track. Well, at least without checking if it is still going where they want it to take them!

Path to nowhere

Within this context, we are advising that strategic objectives are changed or at least refreshed – and that ALL projects underway or reviewed to see if they still fit within the new strategy.

Although often there is a clear need to scrap them or at least change them dramatically – the resistance to do so is immense.

The CEO hears many reasons why the projects must stay in place:
“Lets just get to the next milestone and review it again at that stage.”
“We could change the direction somewhat and it might be a better fit with what we are trying to achieve”
And our favorite: “but we have invested so much in this already … ”

The trouble is as long as useless or suboptimal projects continue, the less resources we have to invest in the new more critical ones. So we advocate a robust process that includes:

• Review context and strategy
• Refresh / change strategic objectives (maximum five, so you cannot simply add more to what you already have)
• Make an inventory of all (yes, ALL) projects underway and map them back to strategic objectives and to each other.
• Put each one through a clear assessment and decision process to decide what to drop
  • Note: none of the decision objectives includes consideration of sunk costs – only future costs
• Develop a new set of initiatives aimed at achieving your new objectives – with appropriate prioritization and resource allocation.

Playing the devils advocate

Put like this, it sounds really straightforward. But there are underlying behaviors that hinder the process. These include: project ownership, knock to pride in reversing a previous decision, sunk cost fallacy, reputations attached to projects, – to name but a few. This makes the simple process very hard to implement. This is a compelling reason to get some independent facilitation and support to make it happen. This could include facilitating (and adding to) the strategic review, identifying and listing the projects, setting up the decision process and helping you drive through to implementation. But as important, being that external voice that challenges some of the reasons given as to why projects should continue.

Project spring-clean

So – perhaps it is time for your “project spring-clean” and focus on new strategic initiatives better aimed at your changed business environment. You will find the process refreshing and it could invigorate your team as well.

Mail me at sgifford@genesis-esp.com if you would like to discuss how we might assist you in this process.

A beginners guide to irrational behavior by Dan Ariely.

I have read a few of his books and seen a number of his lectures. Not only does he know a lot about behavior economics and why we act and decide the way we do – he also conveys it in an entertaining and amusing fashion. I am really looking forward to the course.

The course is hosted by Coursera, an organisation offering free courses who have linked up with 33 other institutions – pretty impressive ones at that …. the likes of Stanford, Princeton, IE and Michigan.

I cannot vouch for he quality of all the courses, but have done one course on systems modelling (Michigan) and can only say it is excellent. You do not need to pay a cent or even buy the professors book. Content is delivered in videos between 5 and 15 minutes long – so it is easy to fit the occasional study period between tasks. It also only takes about 8 hours a week that even the busiest people should be able to manage, given you can listen to the videos whenever you feel like it.

The course starts on the 25th March, so sign up now! Click on the link to find out more and sign up at:

Dan Ariely: a beginners guide to irrational behaviour

I am a great believer in Covey’s “sharpening the saw” occasionally and can only encourage you to sign up to this course (or any of the other ones that grabs your interest) and sharpen your saw.

For interest – Coveys “sharpen the saw” video. Its wider than just education, but still worth watching.

Enjoy the course!

I have read her research papers and various other materials, but the best explanation of her process I have come across is displayed in this video from the University of Gallen:

The 10 myths of entrepreneurship

So, through trial and error, together with discussion with stakeholders and customers, and a clear understanding of the means at your disposal, you develop a new product or business even if your original goals need to shift substantially in the process.

At Genesis we have a view on Saras thinking – although it may go a little against the crowd at the moment. Although I am not certain how academically robust was her research, intuitively there are some great ideas embedded in the theory. Base your business on your own means (including competences), spend more time experimenting and market testing (than in-office analysis), share your ideas and get inputs, … these are all good. They also dovetail nicely with other entrepreneurial thinking such as that of Alex Osterwalder (Business Model Generation) and Steve Blank (The Start-Up Owners Manual). These concepts are particularly useful when dealing with “fuzzy” markets where you have really new products or are developing a new market or market niche.

Where do we think this could be dangerous? Taken to its extreme, we believe the process could lead to laziness and sloppy thinking if it is used totally outside causal thinking. We accept that a new start-up is not the same as a microcosm of a large enterprise, but there are some excellent analytical tools and strategic thinking that can play an important role in the entrepreneurial process. From the humble SWOT through Porters competitive strategy and on to Christensen’s disruptive technology – all could guide the process (depending on the venture) and could also help to reduce risks of ending up in the wrong place and/or with the wrong product.

Furthermore, one of the things that we believe is a characteristic of great entrepreneurs is to persevere and continue far beyond the point when other more “sensible” people have thrown in the towel. That attitude does not sit well alongside the idea that goals can be changed whenever things seem to be going against them.

Our conclusion, Saras has begun an interesting “movement” and there are many important principles that should be used in the “0 to 60mph” phase of the start-up. But do not throw the baby out with the bathwater – recognize that causal thinking, modelling and other scientific business principals can enhance the effectuation process.

We are about to launch a new company: Mashauri Limited aimed at helping entrepreneurs through the process from start-up to stable business where we have cobbled together a mixture of the types of thinking discussed above. We have produced a process that we believe will really enhance the entrepreneurial journey and greatly increase the chances of success. If you are an entrepreneur in the early stages of start-up and would be interested in trialling the product, contact me at sgifford@genesis-esp.com to discuss it.

As always The Economist is able to cut through the fog and produce an insightful forecast for the globe and the regions. The report borders on an overall positive note, although there are clearly huge differences between different areas; with the Eurozone still at a high risk level. We are reminded that the collapse of the Eurozone (which still remains a risk) would create turbulence greater than even the Lehman’s collapse.

In Europe, the split between German policy of insisting on austerity and France moving towards favoring a more stimulus-based recovery is an increasing problem. That compounded with public dissatisfaction with austerity (I only have to look out of my window to see the almost-daily protest marches) in peripheral countries means that the risk of a reversal to Eurozone crisis (and/or political stalemates) ensures Europe will remain a challenge to global recovery.

My South African readers will be interested in the notes on SA trailing  the rest of Africa because of a number of factors including continual high levels of unemployment, unrest on the mines, uncertainty over government policies, corruption and poor management of certain parastatals.

Before leaving you with the link to the report, I would like to emphasize that just as the overall economic situation is the average of regional economies that have significant differences; so is the economic situation of any country, province or even industry, an average of the component parts. As companies, it is when we consider the granularity of these components, that we are able to find the gems of opportunity that allow some organisations to thrive even in the toughest of situations – without necessarily reverting to drastic cost cutting and the slashing of jobs. Part of our Brave New World programme assists organisations in identifying these opportunities.

The EIU March 2013 economic forecast report can be found at these links:

EIU March 2013 summary
EIU March 2013 presentation.pptx
The web-site containing links to the detail (this is the best source but you will need to subscribe to enter the site)

Contact us to discuss our Brave New World programme at BraveNewWorld@Genesismc.co.uk. We are able to assist you in a number of ways from a simple presentation of the global trends and issues relevant to your organisation through to facilitating a full programme with your senior executive team.

So .. how do entrepreneurs handle risk and uncertainty? What do the successful ones do differently? How do you plan when you are dealing with new and unknown markets?

Attached is a visually attractive depiction of the study and the results.

Effectuation – entrepreneurial decision making

It has been the most positive Davos meeting in a number of years which was refreshing. With a cautionary note from a number of speakers – particularly the eminently sensible Christine Lagarde who warns that some delegates may have become a little too euphoric during the conference.

There were many fascinating forums that I have reviewed (and certainly many I have not had the chance to see). The first two I would like to comment on were the two most critical economic discussion: “The global economic outlook for 2013″ and “Eurozone crisis – the way forward”. They were interesting, insightful but long forums so I have done my best to summarise them onto a one page infographic-style summary.

Our conclusion is that Europe (and to a lesser extent other economies) is “out on bail”, which is not meant to be a  reference to Lagarde’s predecessor. The immediate crisis may be over but there is no room for complacency.
Click here for our Out On Bail summary.

Among the many other excellent discussions, I think the following are worth your consideration. If you click on the title, it will take you to the WEF official blog on that forum.

 So can women have it all?
There were a number of fantastic discussions around gender equality and the benefits. The official 2012 report on the gender gap is also excellent.

An entrepreneurial approach to risk.
An excellent forum that considers risks and then ways of addressing them. One very interesting part of this was considering how entrepreneurs make decisions and face unknowns – termed effectual decision making. Important to big corporations and entrepreneurs alike. Also mentioned is the Global Risks 2013 report -  a good interactive document.

Wanted 600 million workers
An important fact is that unemployment is not simply that there are no jobs available; rather it is also about a mismatch between required skills and available skills. No easy answers here, except it is the role of both governments and business to find ways of closing the gap.

Finally, in closing I would like to bring your attention to our Brave New World initiative where we challenge organisations to begin moving forward in a positive manner by considering how the world has changed and is changing – and all the opportunities that this produces. An integral element of this is to take inputs from places such as WEF, The Economist, the Global Economic Symposium and other excellent sources to provide a more appropriate context than a “rear-view mirror” analysis.

If you are interested in Genesis supporting you in this (for instance through simply providing the contextual material; through to running a forward-looking  and motivating workshop for your management team) – contact us at BraveNewWorld@Genesismc.co.uk.

First, you will probably enjoy (or be amused by, or scared by) some of the top 10 quotes from yesterday. (The hyperlinks link to the broadcast of the speeches – worthwhile if you have the time):

“Europe faces issues, but its destiny shines through the smoke and fog. I’m optimistic about Europe’s future”
Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF, in Resilient Dynamism

“Unless we take action on climate change, future generations will be roasted, toasted, fried and grilled.”
Christine Lagarde

“Africa’s story has been written by others; we need to own our problems and solutions and write our story.”
 Paul Kagame, President of Rwanda

“The state sector needs to shrink.  In the last few years, the state sector has been expanding. This is the opposite of the direction we need to go. We know [state-owned-enterprises] are low-efficiency. When resources move from the high-efficiency private sector to the low-efficiency state sector, the economy declines. So if you talk about reform, the state sector needs to continue to be shrunk.”
Xu Xiaonian, Professor of Economics and Finance, China Europe International Business School (CEIBS)

“Average IQ goes up by two to three points every decade. If you don’t believe it, compare Beverly Hillbillies to The West Wing”
Larry Summers, Harvard University professor, in his An Insight, an Idea session

“At the end of the day, all emerging markets offer growth. But today, really, the last bastion of big growth is the African continent. A billion people, of which 500 million are connected, and 500 million are yet to be connected.”
Sunil Bharti Mittal, Chairman and Group Chief Executive Officer, in Derisking Africa

The other report I would like to bring to your attention is a report coordinated by Roland Berger called “Rebuilding Europe’s Competitiveness”. It is well-written with a compelling storyline highlighting the difference between Northern Europe and Southern Europe. There are good graphics, excellent case studies and it is easily read, although requires time.

In a nutshell, it emphasises:

• Entrepreneurship and innovation
• Mobilizing talent
• Making markets work better for Europe
  as key elements.

Furthermore, it is encouraging in that is shows how things are beginning to change and what needs to be done. Although many of our readers are not in European politics (or we do not think so at least), the report presents an important backdrop for anyone trying to run a business in Europe. It also offers important clues to other regions which may have similar problems – including South Africa where there are some uncanny similarities to Southern Europe.

You can download a copy of the report at: Rebuilding Europe’s Competitiveness

And for those of you who think I have completely sold out to the WEF, I am adding a link to a great article by John Gapper of the Financial Times who discusses Davos with a rich combination of journalist cynicism with intellectual envy in an article called:

Davos is no conspiracy – it is infotainment

For those of you who believe it is time for their organisation to start looking at the future with more optimism, but also an acknowledgement that times have changed and “rear-view mirror” perspectives are insufficient to identify the new and exciting opportunities that are presenting themselves – contact me at  BraveNewWorld@Genesismc.co.uk  to discuss how you could join the Brave New World initiative we have recently launched -  where we use inputs from the WEF, The Economist and other highly professional sources to set the context for your business and help your team to plot your road-map to future prosperity and growth.

Not coincidentally, this is also the week that we are launching our new “Brave New World” initiative. The tough economic times continue to a greater or lesser extent depending on your perspective (country, industry, region, …) and we believe the green shoots are showing or about to show. The biggest challenge many organisations face is that the business environment has changed fundamentally but many are still looking in the rear-view mirror to plan the road ahead. Coupled with that is that many are also in survival mode – with a strong internal focus on cost containment.

Resources tend to be stretched especially at executive level and although we know we should be considering the broader trends and fundamental changes that have been happened, we seldom give ourselves the opportunity to read and absorb some of the material out there (such as is coming out of the World economic Forum) – to say nothing of sitting down as an executive team to discuss the implications and opportunities for the organisation.

The BraveNewWorld challenge is to change this mindset in your organisations (if it exists) and proactively look at the new “world” you will be facing, with a perspective of seeking opportunities and growth. Taking the time out to assess the future NOT through the perspective of the rear-view mirror, but from the perspective of what the future might look like. Contact me at BraveNewWorld@GenesisMC.co.uk to discuss how we might be able to offer assistance in this process.

Back to Davos, the theme of this years conference can best be described using Professor Klaus Schwab’s words:
“Today, we live in the most complex, interdependent and interconnected era in human history. We are increasingly confronted by major adaptive challenges as well as profound transformational opportunities. This new leadership context requires successful organizations to master strategic agility and to build risk resilience.”

Later posts will discuss specific debates at Davos, but for this first post I should like to bring to your attention the WEF TV channel at http://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2013 . As I write this, I am watching a discussion called “De-risking Africa” with discussions from Clayton Christensen (disruptive technologies) and Global Risks due in the next few hours. Incredible stuff and whether or not you agree with the opinions expressed, it should certainly stimulate your thinking.

And finally, congratulations Charlize on your Crystal Award. Beauty, brains and empathy  …..  an exceptional and rare combination.

Best said he seems to be brilliant at understanding complexity with blackboard and chalk. Drawing pictures and interconnections to get to grips with the complexity of the situation. In one of the 7 habits of highly effective decision makers, we said: “combat complexity with visualisation”. Well, it seems that Gong is living proof that this works.

There does not seem to be any underlying methodology, except working on the principle of “insight-decision-action” – which means understanding why is anyone looking at the situation in the first place? What do they want to do with it? Because that is what frames the image.

So have a look at the interview and then browse around his web-site a little. I cannot promise you will fully understand, but I think I can promise you will be at least fascinated .. and maybe a little inspired?

GBN interview with Gong Szeto

Gong’s web-site

Although we at Genesis would not claim to be able to do identical work as Gong, we are able to help you think through the complexity of a situation and with some advanced tools and technology. We will assist your team in making sense of the situation and identifying the key drivers and risks.
Contact us for a discussion at sgifford@genesis-esp.com

Extract from report

This is a survey well worth reading when considering the trends that will face both private and public sector in the near future. There are some superb interactive graphics that allow for quick drilling down into those things that are relevant to you.

WEF Global Issues: 2012

You may like to consider using this as input to your strategy review or strategic planning session – we would be delighted to facilitate such a session using this material as input together with state of the art technology that could transform that session into a memorable and important event. Contact me at sgifford@genesis-esp.com to discuss this.