The latest forecast from The Economist Intelligence Unit
As always The Economist is able to cut through the fog and produce an insightful forecast for the globe and the regions. The report borders on an overall positive note, although there are clearly huge differences between different areas; with the Eurozone still at a high risk level. We are reminded that the collapse of the Eurozone (which still remains a risk) would create turbulence greater than even the Lehman’s collapse.
In Europe, the split between German policy of insisting on austerity and France moving towards favoring a more stimulus-based recovery is an increasing problem. That compounded with public dissatisfaction with austerity (I only have to look out of my window to see the almost-daily protest marches) in peripheral countries means that the risk of a reversal to Eurozone crisis (and/or political stalemates) ensures Europe will remain a challenge to global recovery.
My South African readers will be interested in the notes on SA trailing the rest of Africa because of a number of factors including continual high levels of unemployment, unrest on the mines, uncertainty over government policies, corruption and poor management of certain parastatals.
Before leaving you with the link to the report, I would like to emphasize that just as the overall economic situation is the average of regional economies that have significant differences; so is the economic situation of any country, province or even industry, an average of the component parts. As companies, it is when we consider the granularity of these components, that we are able to find the gems of opportunity that allow some organisations to thrive even in the toughest of situations – without necessarily reverting to drastic cost cutting and the slashing of jobs. Part of our Brave New World programme assists organisations in identifying these opportunities.
The EIU March 2013 economic forecast report can be found at these links:
Contact us to discuss our Brave New World programme at BraveNewWorld@Genesismc.co.uk. We are able to assist you in a number of ways from a simple presentation of the global trends and issues relevant to your organisation through to facilitating a full programme with your senior executive team.